How to use mathematics to beat the bookies
Bookmakers get rich on margin, but you can beat them even at a distance.
Mathematics in betting increases your chances of success but does not guarantee profit. In this article, we'll take apart margin, odds, and mathematical strategies for betting on sports. And also answer the main question: how to beat a bookie.
Bookmaker's margin and odds
Margin is the commission that the bookmaker puts into the odds.
The odds are the probability of the event including the bookmaker's margin. The odds are needed to calculate bets on sports.
Calculate the possible payout of a bet using the formula:
(bet amount) X (odds)
The bookmaker can incur losses at the end of one match, but because of the margin, bookmakers are in the plus for the distance.
Calculate the margin by the formula:
The ladder strategy
The ladder is a strategy where the size of each next bet in case of a run is equal to the payout on the previous bet until the end of the cycle.
You plan your profits. Start a new cycle after you fail or achieve your desired result.
Let's imagine that you start the staircase with 1000 KSh and want to get 4000 KSh of profit. Consider the table of possible results:
Oscar Grind's strategy.
Oskar Grind's strategy is a strategy by which you keep the size of the bet when you lose and double it when you come to close the cycle.
The amount of the first bet is equal to the desired profit. Start a new cycle after reaching a result. Bet at odds from 2.00.
Suppose your bank is 20,000 KSh and you want to get 1,000 KSh of profit.
Forks in sports betting
A fork is an opportunity to bet on different selections of the same event and get a guaranteed profit whatever the outcome.
Calculate the fork according to the formula:
- 1/2.10 + 1/3.90 + 1/4.50 = 0.9548.
- Sp<1, we have a fork in front of us.
For example, in the soccer match, "Barcelona" vs Juventus the stake on the victory of the hosts is given by Bookmaker A for the odds 2.10, and Bookmaker B offers 3.90 on a draw and 4.50 on the success of the guests.
Let's calculate the sum of the probabilities:
1/2.10 + 1/3.90 + 1/4.50 = 0.9548.
Sp<1, we have a fork in front of us.
Betting 1000 KSh on Barcelona, 540 rubles on a draw, and 460 KSh on Juventus, the total betting sum will be 2000KSh.
Mathematics in betting increases your odds of playing with a bookie. Use the math to make a profit. But be careful. Bookmakers can limit the size of the maximum bet players on the forks, and other strategies do not guarantee a win.